RBA set to hold rates steady at final meeting of 2024

Financially-strained borrowers should not expect an early Christmas interest rate present at the final central bank board meeting of 2024.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent, a setting it considers high enough to slow the economy and curb inflation.

The two-day December meeting will start on Monday.

The RBA has logged substantial progress on inflation, with the annual headline rate at 2.8 per cent, back within the target band and well down from its peak of 7.8 per cent in December 2022.

Yet the focus has been on underlying price measures, which adjust for temporary measures such as energy bill subsidies.

The all-important trimmed mean measure is still sitting at 3.5 per cent.

All experts polled by comparison site Finder expected no change in the official cash rate in December.

The vast majority anticipate interest rate reprieve in the first half of 2025, with almost half of the 40 respondents pencilling in May for easing to commence.

February remained the second most popular choice for the first cut, with eight economists and experts tipping the first meeting of next year.

Commonwealth Bank is now the only big four bank forecasting a February start, with the remaining three predicting May.

CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said economic data had either been softer or in line with RBA forecasts, with last week’s national accounts showcasing the slowest rate of annual growth in GDP in more than three decades, outside the pandemic.

“The data confirmed that the income boost provided by the stage three tax cuts did not generate a commensurate spending response by the household sector,” he said.

“Weakness on the consumer spending front puts downward pressure on growth in consumer prices.”

Mr Aird was expecting little change in the RBA’s assertive language in the post-meeting statement and press conference.

“We think that the statement accompanying the December on‑hold decision is likely to reiterate that ‘the board is not ruling anything in or out’,” he said.

Tuesday’s interest rate decision will be followed with a number of public appearances from RBA officials, starting with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser on Wednesday at the ABE Annual Dinner.

Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones is scheduled to speak at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney on Thursday, and Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter at the University of Adelaide luncheon on Friday.

Dr Hunter will speak after Thursday’s labour force update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, a series watched carefully by the RBA and overall proving stronger than anticipated.

Other items of interest include National Australia Bank’s business survey and population growth numbers for the June quarter from the ABS on Thursday.

The federal government’s mid-year budget update is expected to land as early as next week.

Meanwhile, investors on Wall Street are all smiles following several upbeat company forecasts and US jobs data fuelling expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

The Nasdaq (up 159.05 points to 19,859,77) and S&P 500 (up 15.16 points to 6,090.27) rose to record closing highs on Friday.

However the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 123.19 points lower to 44, 642.52, as a 5.1 per cent drop in UnitedHealth Group shares weighed on the index.

At home, share futures were down 25 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 11, 193, with the slide across the week 39 points, or 0.46 per cent.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index dropped 54 points, or 0.64 per cent, to 8,420.9 on Friday, while the broader All Ordinaries fell 55.2 points, or 0.63 per cent, to 8,689.3.