Geraldton seat set to be strongly contested as experts predict preferences will be key

Political experts are tipping a tight race for the seat of Geraldton, with preferences — particularly those of an independent candidate — set to be a deciding factor.

Incumbent Labor MP Lara Dalton, Liberal candidate Tim Milnes, Nationals candidate Kirrilee Warr, and independent Shane Van Styn are the four contenders political experts say are most likely to claim the seat.

Former political reporter Peter Kennedy said he expected the result on March 8 would be far closer than the 2021 election.

“Lara Dalton won on absolute majority last time. She won almost 55 per cent of the primary vote, which was a huge vote for Labor,” he said.

“However, what I expect this time is that the vote will be far more evenly spread, and the seat will end up being decided on preferences.

“The Liberals, Nationals, and Shane Van Styn are putting in a strong show, so she’s under strong challenge, no doubt.”

While the seat has traditionally seesawed between Labor and the Liberals, the expansion of electoral boundaries to include the shires of Northampton and Chapman Valley have the experts predicting it will be a more open race.

Curtin University professor of public policy John Phillimore said the four-way battle was unusual.

“It’s a sort of contest where all four you can imagine potentially having a win,” Professor Phillimore said.

“It’ll definitely be one of the seats to watch on Saturday (March 8).”

Ms Dalton holds the seat by a margin of 9.3 per cent.

From this State election onwards, the Legislative Council will have 37 members, up from 36, with all of them serving Statewide, similar to how the Federal Senate operates.

University of WA school of social sciences Professor Amanda Davies said regional representation would be affected, meaning the decision to elect a strong candidate was important.

“Regional representation will be diluted in the Upper House, it’s a given,” she said.

“It is more important the people who are in the Lower House representing regional electorates are able to really effectively work to ensure that those particular regional issues are actually brought to light.”

With the contest tipped to be close, preferences appear as important as ever.

Mr Van Styn, who lost the 2023 mayoral election on preferences after receiving a majority of first-preference votes, could hold the key to the seat, the political pundits believe.

Professor Davies said parties may come to Mr Van Styn for offer of preferences.

“He may not attract a share of the vote large enough to overcome the pool of the larger parties,” she said. “Where those are distributed is going to be very important.

“We might also see things like distributions from other parties going to a candidate like Shane Van Styn, enabling a much larger vote going that direction.”

Professor Phillimore agreed, saying parties may offer a deal to get Mr Van Styn’s preferences.

“When parties do preference swaps, it’s because they’ve decided to preference other seats,” he said.

“(Mr Van Styn) hasn’t got a lot to bargain with, so what can the Liberals or Nationals offer Shane in return?”

Professor Phillimore said he did not believe the Nationals or Liberals would go as far as to offer their second preference to Mr Van Styn, but discussions would be taking place.

Mr Kennedy said although Mr Van Styn was an independent candidate, his profile within the community meant he had as good a shot as anyone at winning.

“He’s an ex-mayor, has a high profile, and he’s run for the seat before, so that’s a great advantage,” he said.

“He’s got to finish high up in the primary vote to have a chance.

“If he can finish one or two in the primary vote, then with an exchange of preferences he’d have a good chance.”