GIWA 2024 crop report: Bleak outlook thanks to dry start, as farmers remain cautious about growing season

Nervous farmers in the Geraldton zone have no appetite for risk and are pulling back on planned crops, according to a bleak outlook for the 2024-25 growing season. Seeding has commenced on many farms in the lead up to Anzac Day, but it is a dry and dusty start to the season — for some, the driest in living memory. “With no rain on the horizon, it looks like at least a couple of more weeks of dry sowing ahead,” Grains Industry Association of WA crop report author Michael Lamond said. “This is not unusual for WA and is not necessarily a precursor to a poor year. Although the extremely dry soil profiles are a concern and have put a dampener on the start to the 2024 growing season.” Crops now being planted are forecast to cover 8.595 million hectares across WA, including 1.357 million hectares in the Geraldton port zone. Locally in the Geraldton zone, isolated storms from Mingenew to Coorow saw falls of up to 40mm, allowing growers to sow canola into moisture. But Mr Lamond said, for the remainder of the zone it is “as dry as most have ever seen it”. “Last year was a very poor year for the region and the dry summer has resulted in growers pulling back on planned areas of crop,” he wrote. “The appetite for risk is just not there.” Mr Lamond said a “conscious plan” will see many hold off planting canola until “rain is in sight”. “Historically, dry sown crops that receive rain sooner after sowing generally have better establishment than those where seed has been sitting in the hot soil for weeks. “As a result, it’s mostly wheat that is going in dry at present, and barley for those that grow barley,” Mr Lamond said. At this early stage, Mr Lamond stated the crop area mix was up in the air as growers had reasonable flexibility to “switch crops species to match the season”. “The (Geraldton) region has seen wild swings in the last five years with the best seasons on record in 2021 and 2022, and the worst years on record in 2019 and 2023. Growers are understandably nervous as to what this season may hold,” Mr Lamond said. Geraldton’s 2023-24 harvest was 1.497Mt, significantly down from the record haul of 4Mt in 2022-23. Across the State, last year’s harvest totalled 14.534Mt, also down from the previous year’s unprecedented high of 26Mt. On the State outlook, Mr Lamond said current climate outlook “forecasting more of the same for the time being” had evaporated hopes of rain in the short term. “Whilst things can change quickly at this time of the year, growers are taking a cautious approach with cropping plans,” he said. “Whilst long-term weather forecasts are not particularly reliable this time of the year, there is nothing positive on the horizon and this is playing on growers’ minds with most taking a cautious approach to the season ahead.”