Australia’s excess deaths caused by COVID-19 and not the vaccine, new evidence conclusively shows

A raft of new evidence has killed off claims COVID-19 vaccinations caused a greater than expected number of deaths during the pandemic. Australia and WA, in particular, were perfect case studies to understand the global phenomenon. As one of the world’s most vaccinated countries, Australia had one of the lowest rates of excess deaths, ranking 60th put of 66 countries with populations above one million. The Australian Bureau of Statistics, which has keenly studied excess mortality since the start of the pandemic, has provided information to a Federal parliamentary inquiry. In simple terms, it compared the number of deaths with the number expected had the pandemic not occurred. WA was especially interesting, because it was a relatively COVID-free bubble until hard border restrictions were lifted in March 2022, and it led the country in booster doses after opening up. No excess deaths were recorded in WA until the State faced its wave of Omicron in 2022. The ABS reported the first peak of excess mortality in the first full week of May that year. Paul Griffin, an expert in infectious diseases and Professor of Medicine at the University of Queensland, said excess deaths would have occurred before then if vaccines were the culprit. “It was only when we removed the restrictions, and COVID was introduced, that we saw deaths rise,” Professor Griffin said. For 2022, WA’s excess mortality was 7.1 per cent, and last year it was 5.2 per cent. In contrast, NSW recorded sustained excess mortality from the end of 2021 until the end of August 2022. Deaths were 11.5 per cent higher than expected for 2022. Victoria’s excess mortality in the same year was double that of WA at 14 per cent. Excess mortality was only recorded when deaths exceeded the expected number by more than 5 per cent — what statisticians call the confidence interval. In 2022, COVID-19 was the third-leading cause of death in Australia, and responsible for two-thirds of excess mortality — the first time an infectious disease had among the top five leading causes since the late 1960s. The ABS classifies COVID-19 deaths as those in which it was listed on a death certificate, not those in which it was contributory and not noted on the certificate. “Death rates for heart diseases, diabetes and dementia have been higher during times of high mortality during the pandemic,” it told the inquiry. “These are all causes commonly recorded as comorbidities among deaths associated with COVID-19.” Excess deaths primarily affected those over 65. Had vaccines been responsible, excess deaths would also have been reported in younger people. Of nearly 71 million COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in Australia during the pandemic period, just 16 deaths were recorded by the ABS as caused by the vaccine itself, and the Health Department also found no credible evidence to the contrary. “Global excess mortality data do not correlate with high vaccination rates,” it said. The Department of Health and Aged Care also told the inquiry there had been delayed deaths of people with underlying health problems because of fewer cases of respiratory and other diseases, like influenza. Delays in emergency care, reduced diagnostic testing, and check-ups were also factors. “It seems clear that the small number of deaths triggered by COVID-19 vaccines is a tiny fraction of the number of COVID-19 deaths that they have prevented,” the Actuaries Institute said via its mortality working group. “The timing of when COVID-19 vaccinations were administered does not correspond with the timing or shape of excess mortality. “Data . . . shows that the vast majority of the increase in deaths from ischaemic heart disease is in those with chronic heart conditions, rather than an acute episode, lending further weight to the hypothesis that the after-effects of COVID-19, mortality displacement and lack of routine medical care, are the main drivers.” The institute added dementia deaths had also been affected by COVID cases, while the Heart Foundation reported the pandemic had a significant negative impact on Australians with cardiovascular disease. “The disruption of routine and chronic care services led to missed opportunities for managing cardiovascular risk, resulting in a backlog of care,” it told the inquiry, citing figures to the end of January that 25 per cent of the 4500 COVID-related deaths were because of cardiovascular disease. Lamenting “significant mis- and disinformation” around the vaccines, the foundation said figures showed the virus directly compromised cardiovascular stability, and there was a significant rise in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and acute coronary syndrome. Elsewhere, the Heart Foundation pointed to deaths from myocarditis — inflammation of the heart muscle — and pericarditis — swelling of the tissue surrounding it — at 31 and five, respectively across 2021 and 2022, saying they were no higher than previous years, before vaccines were administered. “Hospitalisations from myocarditis, pericarditis, heart attack, stroke and pulmonary embolism were more frequent after a COVID-19 infection,” the foundation said. “Therefore, any strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and decrease infection rates are beneficial for individuals with heart disease.” It said unvaccinated people over 50 had a higher mortality rate than their fully vaccinated counterparts — increasing to 50 per cent among those who had also received a booster dose. Professor Griffin noted some rare side effects linked to vaccines, like myocarditis, were more likely to be experienced as complications from COVID infections. He said there had been hundreds of studies showing the vaccines had saved millions of lives. “Many people will see these excess deaths as a failure of everything that we did,” Professor Griffin said. “But what’s really clear is excess deaths would have been far greater had we not done what we did. “It doesn’t indicate failure, it just really is an indicator of how significant this pandemic was, and still is. “We know these vaccines don’t prevent transmission, although they do help with that to a degree. They work primarily by reducing the severity of illness that follows.” Professor Griffin was critical of governments for dropping the ball on COVID-19 because of concerns about community fatigue on the issue. Public health messaging was now virtually non-existent despite the ongoing threat, he said. As recently revealed by The Sunday Times, the Cook Government’s new $5.2 million campaign to boost vaccination rates across a range of diseases deliberately excluded COVID, even though it killed more than all the others. It was omitted based on “consumer research”. Professor Griffin said instead of ducking the issue, the Government should tackle misinformation head-on with education. “Unfortunately, the misinformation circulates so much more readily than the reliable information,” he said. “The messaging certainly has to be that the vaccines are very important, they still do help a lot. And (immunisation) is our most significant intervention that we can deploy to try and address the situation, which is still very serious. “If we had a road toll that was the same as the COVID toll, it would be front page news, and we’d be trying to do everything we could to address that. Whereas, even though we’re still seeing regular deaths, outbreaks in nursing homes, hospital acquired transmission etc, our governments, our public health authorities have elected to not discuss it at the moment. “I think we should be going upstream and trying to fix those issues that not only restore the trust in public health, but to educate people. There’ll be a proportion of (anti-vaxxers) who aren’t amenable to this and, you know, that’s fine. “But I think there’s a lot of people that are just a bit confused, overwhelmed or fatigued about all this. And I think they’re people, if we get the right information to them, we could probably make a difference.” Professor Griffin said the biggest failure was in residential aged care, with very low rates of vaccination. “We’re doing such a terrible job of keeping those people protected,” he said. “Obviously, vaccination is the No.1 way but even looking at other infection control principles and things like that, we need to do better. We just aren’t doing enough in this area.”