Queensland Election: Steven Miles’ Labor Government faces likely defeat, as chance of hung parliament remains

A change of government is likely in Queensland after the three-term Labor Government lost its majority but avoided the wipeout polls a month out had predicted.

The Liberal National Party under David Crisafulli was set to hold almost all of its own seats and had taken a number of regional Labor electorates.

But more than two hours after voting ended at 6pm local time on Saturday, the ABC’s elections analyst Antony Green said it was unclear if the LNP would reach the 47 seats needed for a majority.

Premier Steven Miles went into the night holding 51 out of the chamber’s 93 seats, with the LNP sitting on 35.

“At this stage the LNP can reach majority... but it’s not clear yet,” Mr Green said.

The election guru said there was a high chance the LNP would win at least 44 seats and Labor 38 as the Government’s primary vote dropped by about 6 per cent.

With the right-wing Katter Australia Party set to win three seats, the results put the LNP in a stronger position to secure power even if it fell short of a majority.

Mr Crisafulli’s once massive lead in the polls narrowed in the final stretch of the campaign after Premier Miles, who took over from Annastacia Palaszczuk in December, ran an energetic and aggressive campaign.

A Newspoll Friday showed the LNP leading Labor 52.5 to 47.5 on a two party preferred basis, down from a lead of 55-45 in September.

Preliminary numbers showed an even tighter result, but postal votes proved more favourable to the LNP and boosted their prospects of reaching 47.

Mr Crisafulli has sought to focus voter’s minds on youth crime and the cost of living.

But his party’s past opposition to abortion was thrust into the spotlight after the Katter Party promised it would reverse the Palaszczuk Government’s 2018 laws that decriminalised the procedure.

Early results were also disappointing for the Greens, who lost one of their two seats to Labor.

Federal Labor president and former Treasurer Wayne Swan said the figures gave hope to Federal Labor, which holds just five of the State’s 30 seats.

“Labor’s got room to make tremendous gains in Queensland in the next federal Campaign, and what the results tells us tonight is, that is indeed possible,” he told the ABC.

Whilst a conservative state at a Federal level, Labor has dominated the Queensland parliament and governed for 30 of the past 35 years.

Ms Palaszczuk pulled off a political miracle when she ended Campbell Newman’s LNP Government after just one term in 2015, forming a minority Government.

Three years earlier, Labor had been reduced to just seven seats.

Ms Palaszczuk took Labor into majority in 2017 and grew her numbers further in 2020.

After Chris Minns won the 2023 NSW election, Labor was in office in every State and Territory except Tasmania.

In August, Labor was swept from office in the Northern Territory in a landslide.